Will real estate prices fall?

The housing market in Ukraine has been in a state of constant transformation for several years now, adapting to economic and regulatory changes. In one sector, positive trends can be observed, in another - less encouraging ones. Thus, according to analysts, real estate prices in the primary market are likely to continue to grow for a number of reasons. In contrast, the secondary sector will remain relatively stable.

Based on an analysis of the political situation and economic indicators, in particular the exchange rate, our experts have formed an objective forecast for the development of the housing market in Ukraine for 2026 and 2027 - what factors will determine price dynamics, what to expect, and how to act to avoid financial risks.

What happened to housing prices during 2021-2025

In the period 2021-2024, the real estate market of Ukraine underwent significant changes under the influence of economic, social and geopolitical factors. After the pandemic recession of 2020, the housing market demonstrated an active recovery. The average price of objects at the construction stage increased by 19%. Thus, the cost of a one-room apartment in Kyiv was $41.000 on average. In other cities (the cost is indicated in dollars):

• Lviv – 45.000;
• Odesa - 35.000;
• Dnipro – 30.000;
• Kharkiv – 30.000;
• Vinnytsia – 25.000;
• Poltava – 22.000.

However, despite the good pace of recovery and optimistic forecasts, the outbreak of a full-scale war in February 2022 caused a decrease in market activity. However, despite the risks associated with the war, average housing prices in Ukraine increased by about 30–35% over the year. A one-room apartment in the capital already cost about $63.000. 

Other cities:

• Lviv – 60.000;
• Odesa - 42.000;
• Dnipro – 38.000;
• Kharkiv – 25.000;
• Vinnytsia – 40.000;
• Poltava – 35.000;
• Mykolaiv – 20.000;
• Zaporizhia – 18.000.

In 2023, the market gradually adapted to the new conditions, but prices per square meter continued to grow. In Kyiv, the average cost of a one-room apartment increased by about 16%, as demand for housing remained high there. For example, in Odessa, the cost increased by 13%. As for front-line locations, prices decreased: in Dnipro and Zaporizhia, these indicators are about 5%. Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil demonstrated an increase in cost by 30%. In Vinnytsia and Khmelnytskyi, a price increase of 20% was observed.

We have considered the secondary market, but we should not forget about the primary one. In 2024, the real estate market also showed all signs of recovery. And although it has not yet reached pre-war indicators, the demand for real estate remained consistently high. At the same time, real estate prices in the capital actually remained at the level of 2023: the average cost of a square meter in new buildings in Kyiv was about $ 3.000. What is the situation in other cities of Ukraine:

• Lviv – 2500;
• Uzhhorod – 2300;
• Odesa - 2000;
• Dnipro – 1900.

What can we see in different regions of Ukraine?

• Kyiv and the region. Prices are determined primarily by the status of the capital. The infrastructure is developed here, business is concentrated. Since the beginning of the war, the cost of housing has decreased, but since 2024 it has been growing by 10%. This applies to all types of real estate: primary and secondary markets, housing from the premium segment. The cost of elite real estate is within 3200-8000 dollars (m²). Double-room flat at 65 m² costs $208.000. Prices will continue to rise.
• Lviv and other cities of Western Ukraine. The region is characterized by a high level of security, opportunities for business relocation. The cost of a square meter and housing in general has increased (12-15%), it can even compete with Kiev. The price of a square meter in the premium segment is about $ 3000. Example: an apartment, two rooms, area - 65 m². Price – $195.000. Prices are also expected to increase in the future.
• Dnipro. Remains the main choice among IDPs. There is infrastructure, logistics, everything for business. The cost of apartments is growing, but these indicators are small and stable (4-7%). A square in the premium segment will cost $ 2000. That is, a two-room apartment with an area of ​​​​65 m² – $130.000. What do experts predict: no sharp fluctuations should be expected.
• Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia. Prices show a downward trend due to the war. Buyers are residents of cities and regions. The cost has decreased for all markets: secondary, primary, premium segment. In the latter case, elite real estate costs as economy housing. Square meter – 450 dollars. Apartment, two rooms, area – 65 m²: $31.200. Further price declines are forecasted in the primary market.

So despite all the negative factors, for 4 years the real estate market in Ukraine has shown all signs of recovery. Despite the increase in prices in both the primary and secondary markets, the demand for housing has remained consistently high, especially in cities with a population of over a million. 

What was the real estate market like in 2025?

In 2025, the real estate market showed a trend towards price growth, and this indicator reached 12,8% (unlike 2024). At the same time, changes are observed in both the primary and secondary markets. These are 13% and 13,4%, respectively.

What to expect in the primary real estate market in 2026-2027

In 2026-2027, prices on the primary real estate market in Ukraine will be influenced by several key factors - currency changes, rising inflation and geopolitical tensions. Demand for new housing in relatively safe regions remains, however, developers face logistical difficulties, rising material prices and labor shortages, which are directly reflected in the market situation. Having analyzed all these factors and trends of previous years, we have formed a forecast of expectations under conditions of relative stability in the country.

Kyiv

In Kyiv, the market will remain one of the most active — the number of interested buy an apartment or house is growing at the final stage. Factors shaping the market are the shortage of new projects due to limited activity of developers and at the same time high demand for quality housing.

In 2026, a square meter in a premium residential complex will cost approximately $3. For example, a two-room apartment with an area of ​​000 m² can be purchased for approximately $65. Given the level of inflation, in the segment of new buildings, an increase in prices in new residential complexes by 200–000% is expected. For example, the price of a two-room apartment in a premium residential complex will be about $5.

Western regions (Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Uzhhorod)

One of the main drivers of pricing in 2026 is internal migration. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, demand for real estate in the western regions has been steadily increasing, as people seek housing and investment options in the safest possible cities. 

In Lviv, demand for real estate exceeds supply, which has led to a sharp increase in apartment prices — an average of 40–50% over the past 3 years — both in new buildings and on the secondary market. Today, prices for one-room apartments in Lviv start at $1,200 per square meter and can reach $1,800 per square meter in prestigious residential complexes. At the same time, in Ivano-Frankivsk and Uzhhorod, the primary market costs about $900–1300 per square meter, depending on the location and level of the residential complex. 

Central regions (Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Poltava)

Relative safety and at the same time lower prices compared to the capital contribute to the stable development of the real estate market in the central regions. However, while in the West people not only buy apartments for living, but also actively invest in square meters, here the situation is different: the bulk of buyers are local residents who simply seek to purchase their own housing. 

The most popular cities in this region are Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, and Poltava. As of 2025, a square meter in a modern new building in these cities cost an average of $800–900. The most expensive options are in Vinnytsia, where you can buy a two-room apartment in a good residential complex for $50,000–55,0000. If the situation in the country does not undergo radical changes, we should expect an increase in prices for primary real estate in 2026–2027 within 5–10%.

Frontline cities (Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia)

In frontline cities, the situation is not so optimistic. The formation of prices and demand here directly depends on the security situation. In 2026, most projects under construction remain frozen. Therefore, the supply on the primary market is extremely limited - developers are afraid to invest in such risky projects due to the proximity to the frontline. 

The median cost of a square meter in these regions varies greatly. In Kharkiv, despite the situation, the demand for real estate in 2026 increased compared to last year, and affected prices. This is evidenced by analytical data from the OLX portal. Today, the price of one square meter in a new building here is about $750–800, almost the same as in the central regions. While in Zaporizhia and Mykolaiv - $600–650. So, a two-room apartment in Kharkiv on the primary market will cost you $48–000, in other front-line cities - in the range of $50–0000.

Forecasts for the secondary real estate market in 2026-2027

In the secondary real estate market, pricing is determined by several factors. Among them: the physical condition of the buildings, the year of construction, location, level of infrastructure and security of the area, in particular the presence of critical facilities that often become targets for enemy shelling. Since the secondary market does not directly depend on the cost of building materials and is not affected by logistical difficulties, there are no sharp price jumps here - the situation is mostly stable. We expect the same in the future. 

Kyiv

The secondary housing market in Kyiv in 2026 remains one of the most dynamic in Ukraine. And the main factor in pricing is internal migration. Therefore, due to stable demand, prices for the “secondary” market are catching up with the primary market. Housing is becoming more expensive in the Darnytskyi (+3–5%), Obolonskyi (+4–6%) and Holosiivskyi (+5–6%) districts most actively. In general, the average cost of a square meter in the city is from $900 to $1200 in residential areas and in the range of $1200–1600 closer to the center. Pechersk traditionally remains the most expensive, but here, due to a large selection of premium real estate and, accordingly, more limited demand, prices will not undergo significant changes. In 2026, prices are expected to increase by another 8–10%, provided that the security situation is stable. In the event of de-escalation on the front, growth may accelerate to 15%. 

Western regions (Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Uzhhorod)

In 2026, the secondary market in the western regions, as well as in the capital, remains one of the most active in the country. This trend has been formed since 2022, when the majority of internally displaced persons began to look for housing away from the front line. In Lviv, apartments on the secondary market are in consistently high demand, especially housing with an area of ​​​​up to 70 m² in areas with developed infrastructure. In Ivano-Frankivsk and Uzhhorod, the dynamics are similar, although prices are slightly lower.

As of 2026, the average cost per square meter in Lviv is about $1.700, in Ivano-Frankivsk — $1050, and in Uzhhorod — $1520. Provided that the West of the country remains relatively safe and demand here outweighs supply, it is expected that in 2027 the price of a two-room apartment in Lviv may increase by 10–12% and will be about $76000. 

Central regions (Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Poltava)

Regional stability provides the prerequisites for gradual growth, but today supply and demand are at the same level. Prices do not experience sharp fluctuations. Apartments in residential areas with normal transport accessibility and without special repairs sell quite slowly, so sellers often agree to bargain.

In 2026, the cost of a square meter on the secondary market in Vinnytsia is about $1250, in Cherkasy and Poltava - at the level of $1000-1080. According to forecasts, growth of approximately 8-10% is expected in 2027. The main reason is the stable security situation and the restoration of solvent demand among the local population.

Frontline cities (Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia)

In 2026, the secondary real estate market in the frontline cities of Ukraine — Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhia — remains unstable, largely due to the security situation. In Kharkiv, the average cost of a square meter on the secondary market in 2026 is about $700. In Mykolaiv, the average price is lower — about $630. The lowest figures for today in Zaporizhia are at $500 per square meter. 

The outlook for 2027 remains uncertain and directly depends on the situation on the front. If conditions improve, a gradual recovery in demand and stabilization of prices are possible. However, in the absence of significant changes, the market may remain sluggish, with a limited number of transactions and unstable prices.

Will real estate prices fall in 2026-2027?

As in the previous four years, today the real estate market in Ukraine is in a phase of uncertainty. On the one hand, the economy has partially stabilized, domestic demand is growing, and the volume of new construction is gradually increasing. On the other hand, security risks remain high, investors are acting cautiously, and buyers often postpone transactions until "better times." Therefore, it is impossible to answer unequivocally whether real estate prices will fall without taking into account possible scenarios. 

Optimistic scenario

Provided that the active phase of the war ends or a security agreement is signed, the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine should begin to recover. This should, in particular, affect investment activity, growth in consumer confidence and the return of part of the population from abroad. For the primary market, this may mean a revival in the launch of new projects. We can also expect an increase in demand, especially in Kyiv, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Vinnytsia, where the infrastructure has been relatively unaffected.

It is difficult to predict price changes, however, under the optimistic scenario, experts expect prices to increase by 15-25%.

Pessimistic scenario

In the event of an escalation of hostilities, further destruction of critical infrastructure, and a cessation of international aid, Ukraine could experience a sharp economic collapse. The devaluation of the hryvnia, low consumer demand, and high inflation will cause projects to freeze at the construction stage, and will force secondary real estate owners to reduce prices to a minimum.

However, even in such a scenario, the real estate market will not show a sharp collapse - the decline will probably be gradual and regionally differentiated. Prices will fall the most in frontline cities - up to 15%. In the capital, western and central regions, the situation will definitely be better at the beginning, so we can expect a decline of 7–10%.

Realistic scenario

The most likely scenario is slow, controlled growth. Fluctuations are expected to be insignificant – 5-7%. But it depends on the real estate segment. The increase in value may be in the primary market. At the same time, housing in the secondary market will decrease (up to 10%). With this development of events, conditional security stability is maintained, the state continues to support the economy, inflation is contained, and demand from IDPs, young families, and investors does not fall. In the primary market, growth will be restrained due to the high cost of construction, and the secondary segment will remain more flexible.

The market will operate in conditions of selective activity: large cities are demand drivers, small ones are mostly “standing still”. Thus, in Kyiv the cost of a two-room apartment in a residential area will reach $1600-2000/m², in Lviv – $1500-1800/m², in Vinnytsia – up to $1300/m². In cities with an unstable security situation it is difficult to predict the cost. According to the optimistic scenario, a 40% increase in cost is expected. According to the pessimistic scenario, sales will stop.

Forecast of rental prices in Ukraine

As of June 2026, the housing rental market in Ukraine is showing steady price growth, especially in the western and central regions. In the capital, the average rent for a one-room apartment varies significantly depending on the district. For example, in Pechersk district the median price can reach 39.000 hryvnias, and in Holosiivskyi district – up to 23.000 hryvnias.

In western cities, despite high demand from tenants, prices are still lower than in the capital. In Lviv and Uzhhorod, you can rent a one-room apartment for an average of 20.300 hryvnias, in Ivano-Frankivsk — for 18.000. 

Prices in the central regions, particularly in Vinnytsia, Poltava, and Cherkasy, have remained almost unchanged since last year. You can rent an apartment for a long term in these cities for 9,000–15.000 hryvnias.  

Renting housing in Ukraine continues to increase in price. This trend is expected to continue in the second half of 2026. According to experts, by the spring of 2026, rental rates may increase by an average of 5-10% depending on the square footage, especially in Kyiv, Lviv, and Vinnytsia.

Investment attractiveness of different market segments

In 2026-2027, the investment attractiveness of different segments of the Ukrainian real estate market remains heterogeneous and depends on the type of property, region, and overall economic situation.

In the future, prices for new buildings are expected to increase by 25-35%, which is due to inflation and the rise in the price of construction materials. However, for investors Properties in the final stages of construction are still attractive, especially in safe cities such as Kyiv and Lviv. The payback period for such investments in new buildings is estimated at 8-10 years. Prices for secondary housing remain relatively stable, with an increase of 5-12%. Demand for such housing is supported by the program "eOselya", although its impact is limited. For investors, options on the "secondary" market may be attractive due to the possibility of quick completion of such homes.

At the same time, the commercial segment will see an increase in demand for office space and logistics warehouses – by approximately 30%. This has also caused prices to rise by about 10%. Yes, rent a class "A" office in Kyiv now you can get it for $24-38 per square meter. At the same time purchase of premises in Kiev still remains relevant.

Regardless of the type of real estate, Kyiv and Lviv remain the most attractive investment destinations, with growing demand for housing and commercial properties, which is driving up prices. The eastern and southern regions are showing the first signs of recovery, but investment activity there remains low due to security risks. 

Visnovok

Due to a number of different factors, over the past 5 years the real estate market in Ukraine has undergone significant changes - from a temporary decline in activity to recovery and signs of growth. Despite the change in factors affecting the situation, it is still possible to follow certain trends and make approximate forecasts. Thus, it is expected that in 2026-2027 prices in the primary market may increase by an average of 10-20%, especially in safe regions. In the secondary market, growth will be more restrained: 5-12% depending on location and demand. 

In 2026–2027, the most profitable investment will be in housing on the primary market in Kyiv and Lviv, especially in new buildings at the final stage of construction. According to forecasts, you can expect an increase in value of up to +15%, which will allow you to fix the price and make a profit in the medium term if you plan to resell or rent out your home.