Like a living thing, the real estate market always adapts to the realities of the times. Like all industries and components of our economy, it suffered at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but is now showing clear signs of recovery.
Of course, it is extremely difficult to predict real estate prices in the post-war period due to the large number of variables: from the scale of destruction caused by hostilities, the production capacities of our enterprises to the volume of domestic and foreign investments, demand, etc. However, it is possible to form certain hypotheses now. Our experts analyzed the situation and identified key factors that will affect the cost of a square meter, and told how changes will depend on the region, as well as what the role of the state, international funds, and private investors will be in post-war recovery.
Real estate prices: what has already changed since the start of the war
As of today, housing prices in Ukraine have increased by an average of 30–40% compared to pre-war levels. The growth is due to a shortage of new supply, especially in the primary market: a sharp decline in the pace of construction has already led to a potential shortage of square meters.
The changes brought about by the war have had a profound impact on regional dynamics. Western Ukrainian cities are booming as millions of people have fled frontline areas, leading to rising prices in cities such as Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Uzhhorod, while traditionally large markets in the east (e.g., Kharkiv, Zaporizhia) have seen prices plummet amid destruction and risk.
Overall market activity remains below pre-war levels. However, despite a sharp decline at the start of the full-scale war, demand has stabilized or even recovered somewhat in some segments thanks to government mortgage lending programs and a strong rental market. Rental rates in key cities have risen sharply due to population movements, resulting in high yields — significantly higher than in many European markets.
Factors that will influence price changes after the war
The obvious and main factor in changes in the market will be security. After all, it will give developers an impetus to open new projects again, and Ukrainians will not be afraid to invest in real estate.
Demand
After the war in Ukraine, a significant increase in demand for housing is expected. Millions of citizens have lost their homes. Some of them have already adapted to new cities, but many plan to return as soon as the security and economic situation allows. Against this background, a housing shortage will form, especially in large cities, where demand remained consistently high even during the war. New construction has hardly started over the past three years, so the primary market will not be able to respond quickly to the growth in demand.
Offer
The restoration of supply on the real estate market will be gradual and will directly depend on the scale of destruction, the level of state support and the activity of private capital. The return of residents to the affected regions will create the prerequisites for the construction of new housing, however, the launch of full-fledged development projects is possible only under conditions of economic stabilization and security guarantees. Most companies will probably focus on completing facilities whose construction was suspended due to the war. New projects will start in a few places - mainly in the western regions and large cities with a relatively stable situation. The mass restoration of the housing stock, especially in the destroyed regions, will directly depend on the launch of comprehensive state programs and cooperation with international financial institutions.
Economic factors
During the first three months after the end of the war, there may be some imbalance between prices and buyers' capabilities. And once the balance is achieved, the sector is likely to go up and housing prices will grow at a stable pace. One important aspect will be the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar, which directly affects the cost of construction materials and the cost of construction. In the event of a devaluation of the hryvnia, prices in the primary market may increase even more. Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, currency depreciation and tight financing conditions will put pressure on both developers and buyers. However, reconstruction efforts and closer ties with the EU will lead to a revival of the real estate market as soon as peace is secured.
How will prices change after the war?
Prices per square meter have already increased, which is quite natural for a country in war conditions. And in the post-war period, this trend is likely to continue, as the real estate market will be in a state of active recovery and transformation. Demand for housing, especially in safe regions, will remain high due to the large number of internally displaced persons, as well as the need to renew and replace the destroyed housing stock.
Primary market
Ukraine will inevitably face a decline in the purchasing power of the population, which will limit citizens' opportunities to purchase housing. The economic situation after the war will remain unstable, and incomes will not keep up with the growth in housing costs. This may lead to a temporary decline in activity in the purchase and sale market, especially in the primary housing segment. However, the market is adapting to new conditions. In the first year, prices will remain relatively stable, with minor fluctuations within ±5%, while buyers will focus mainly on completed projects and ready-made housing. New projects will be launched on a limited basis, and the recovery of demand will take 2–3 years.
Provided that investments are actively attracted, state programs are launched to support housing construction, and the exchange rate is stabilized, the growth of prices in the primary market could reach 10–15% annually from the second year after the war.
In the event of prolonged economic instability, high inflation, and a lack of affordable lending instruments, demand for primary housing will be critically low. In this case, a drop in value is possible, especially in regions close to the front line.
Secondary market
At the same time, the secondary market will be more dynamic under any circumstances, because it is in this segment that buyers will be able to close their housing needs faster. Restraining factors will remain the reduction in purchasing power, high competition among sellers and overvaluation of objects in some regions. In a positive scenario, the value of secondary real estate may grow by 8–12% annually in cities with high business activity and low levels of infrastructure damage. Sales will prevail in the segment renovated apartments and readiness for occupancy. However, a gradual recovery is more realistic, with prices fluctuating between -5% and +5% depending on the region. An increase in activity should be expected 12–18 months after the economy stabilizes.
In the event of a deep economic crisis, delays in the reconstruction of the affected regions, and population outflow, the demand for secondary housing will decrease significantly. According to forecasts, real estate prices may fall, especially in old housing stock that needs renovation or is located in regions with weak economic activity.
How will land prices change?
The land market in Ukraine is already showing signs of stabilization, even despite the war. The volume of transactions with plots is gradually increasing, and the asset itself is considered by investors as one of the most reliable instruments for preserving capital. Most likely, the market will maintain this dynamics, so the volume of transactions will grow gradually, without jumps. Prices will increase at the rate of 5–10% per year. Land will remain attractive for investment, but people will act cautiously due to limited liquidity and slow infrastructure reconstruction in rural areas.
Geography of prices in the real estate market
The war has divided the Ukrainian market. Western cities, far from active hostilities, have become price “hot spots”, while the segment in the East and especially on the front lines has collapsed. After the end of hostilities, the dynamics of real estate prices in Ukraine will remain uneven. Differences in destruction, recovery rates, demand and migration processes will significantly affect the speed of market development in each region.
Kyiv
Today, the average price of new housing in Kyiv is about $1280 per square meter (+4% compared to last year), which already indicates good dynamics in market development. Even after the end of the war, we can expect that the capital will remain the main center of business activity and investment attractiveness. We can expect a gradual increase in demand for primary and secondary housing, especially in the business and comfort class segments, which will be caused by the return of Ukrainians from abroad. With a stable economy, prices for housing in Kiev could grow by up to 15% each year during the first three years after the war.
Western regions of Ukraine
With the beginning of the full-scale war, the western regions experienced a significant increase in prices due to increased demand. However, after the end of hostilities, a certain decrease in housing prices is possible if a significant part of the displaced people returns to the eastern regions. However, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Uzhhorod and other cities of the west remain the zones with the lowest level of destruction. Therefore, even after the war, part of the population will not return to their “native” territories, so the demand will remain high, both for the purchase of apartments and for rent.
Center and North
Cities such as Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Poltava may get a new chance due to internal migration and relative security, and become points of urban growth. In a positive scenario in the economy, the recovery rate will be stable, price growth is expected at 6–10% per year, depending on the development of infrastructure and availability of credit. Special interest will be formed in new residential areas and compact housing.
De-occupied and frontline cities
For obvious reasons, these regions will have the slowest recovery dynamics. First, there are ultra-low prices, extremely limited supply and demand. In the first years after de-occupation, one cannot expect price growth, and in some locations, even a decrease in value is possible against the backdrop of population outflow. In the future, 3–5 years, provided reconstruction, security guarantees, and investment attraction, prices may increase by 5–8% per year, primarily due to new buildings and state support programs.
Will foreign investors return?
After the end of hostilities, foreign investors' interest in Ukraine has every chance of recovery. Growing infrastructure needs, urban reforms and large-scale reconstruction programs will create the ground for investments in various segments of real estate - from residential to commercial. First of all, because it is an opportunity to enter the market at the stage of minimal deposits, especially in the regions that were most affected by the war. After the situation stabilizes, real estate prices after the war can demonstrate dynamic growth — especially in Kyiv and large regional centers.
A similar situation was observed in Central and Eastern European countries, such as Poland, Hungary or Romania, after their accession to the EU. If Ukraine continues its path of integration into European structures, real estate may gradually approach the average European indicators in value. The commercial sector also looks promising. It is expected that transnational corporations will consider Ukraine as a new point of development - with the opening of offices, logistics hubs and production sites. This will increase the demand for office, warehouse and industrial real estate in cities with a population of over a million and strategically located regions.
The role of donors and recovery funds
International assistance will be a critical factor in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure, housing stock, and the economy as a whole. A number of donor coalitions have already been formed, including the world’s leading financial institutions—the World Bank, the IMF, the European Investment Bank, and partner governments. Their programs include financing the reconstruction of destroyed buildings, infrastructure modernization, and support for housing construction. At the same time, grants and soft loans will facilitate the development of new residential and commercial projects in the regions with the greatest losses.
This scale of support creates the prerequisites for a rapid revival of the real estate market. Real estate prices in Ukraine may increase not only due to demand from returning citizens, but also due to the entry of large contractors, developers, and investors who will implement projects with the support of international funds. This is especially true for deoccupied and frontline cities - where financial risks are compensated by donor participation, recovery will be faster.
Visnovok
The post-war real estate market of Ukraine will develop in conditions of significant demand, but will face a number of challenges that will require an integrated approach from the state, developers and international partners. Factors that will increase the cost of housing will include, in particular, the increase in the cost of construction materials, logistical difficulties and the shortage of qualified labor. Due to the destruction of infrastructure and production facilities, the supply of many materials is complicated, which will affect the cost of construction. The increase in transportation costs and the need to restore logistics chains will also contribute to the increase in the cost of new housing.
However, economic recovery and stabilization of the financial situation in the country will contribute to increasing the purchasing power of the population, and at the same time - to improving the situation on the real estate market. In the future, Ukraine may become a precedent for large-scale transformation with donor support - similar to the countries of Central Europe after joining the EU.
After all, the history of Ukrainian real estate is closely intertwined with the history of the country: a history of resilience, endurance and hope. So there is every chance that our real estate market will turn into one of the most dynamic in Eastern Europe. The coming years will show how quickly this transformation can happen, but everything indicates that the sector is ready to be revived when given the opportunity.
